Financial Forecast Profit Risks Skewed to the Downside

IATA Economics www.iata.org/economics 1 June 2012 FINANCIAL FORECAST cabbage RISKS SKEWED TO THE DOWNSIDE ? Our consider for air phone line travail breads is unchanged in this every quarter update. We continue to calculate net post-tax profits for the whole industry to fall from $7.9 meg in 2011 to $3 billion in 2012, which is just 0.5% of revenues. However, both the regional composition and the risks to the interchange foretaste scram altered. ? Since the closing forecast air travel volumes continue to expand strongly, at an above-trend pace, while air freight volumes declare shown tentative signs of turn of events up from the lows of late last year. kelvin fuel and cover sets have fallen. We have revised our brent crude vegetable oil price forecast in line with the consensus forecast to an modal(a) of $110/b for 2012, down from the previous(prenominal) forecast of $115/b. However, this is not entirely good news. petroleum prices are weaker because of concer ns about the Eurozone. We at one time base our forecast on the markets inspect that the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis will intensify, alter economic growth in the region further in the second half of this year.

? The regional composition of the forecast has changed significantly, with US and Latin American airlines judge to generate more profit this year, offset by large losses in atomic number 63 and little profits in Asia-Pacific. Moreover, risks to our central forecast have rise with turmoil in the Eurozone threatening a banking crisis, of a frequently larger scale than assumed in the central forecast. neither can risks to oil pr ices, from supply disruptions in the positi! on East, be dismissed. These risks to airline profits remain skewed to the downside. -1%0%1%2%3%4%5%200720082009201020112012FEBIT as % revenuesAirline profitability, EBIT marginEurozone calmsCentral forecastOil price spikeEurozone crisisSystem-wide global commercial airlines2009201020112012F2009201020112012FCentral forecastCentral forecastGlobal0.4%4.0%2.9%1.4%-4.615.87.93.0 Regions North...If you want to get a salutary essay, order it on our website: BestEssayCheap.com

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