Analysis on Blackfish Essay

Introduction: Sea World is a place for people to get a splash of happiness and amusement watching whales do intricate tricks but is the fact that the Orcas are held in captivity and unhappy worth that splash of amusment. The case of â€Å"Blackfish† deals with the captivity of Orca Whales in Sea World and the bill being put up in California to ban the captivity and breeding of Orcas called the California Captive Orca Welfare and Safety Act (Sanchez, 2014). A documentary produced by Magnolia Films about the â€Å"Blackfish† case and the danger of Orcas being in captivity lead to a menacing effect on the image of Sea World. Description: In 2010, a trainer who worked for Sea World, Dawn Brancheau was killed by one of the show whales in Sea World [Tilikum] which set off this controversy and the realization that Orcas should not be kept in captivity (Zurko, 2014). In the documentary â€Å"Blackfish† that was released in July of 2013, it expresses that when Orcas are h eld in detention and bred within such confinement they grow unhappy and aggressive. Orcas are used to living in open waters and that’s where they are happiest, being so detained makes them unhappy to the point where they get aggressive towards those trainers who they know have a part in keeping them imprisoned. They lash out towards the trainers, not because they are dangerous creatures, because they are desperate for a normal healthy life back in the open waters. Because Tili attacked Brancheau, it lead to the beliefs that the title of killer whales was a literal title, when in reality their anger is due to the face they are in captive in the park. Animals are adapted to the environment they were intended, Orcas are used to living free in open waters being able to communicate with other animals in the ocean (Sanchez, 2014). The captivity of the orcas has shortened their lifespan because they are unable to live the way that they should. Interpretation: The image of Sea World has been totally turned around since the â€Å"Blackfish† case has escalated into the media forming a new image for the company. Identity is when a company’s reality is exposed through evidence, such as the services they provide, from the company, whereas image is a tangent of identity where it is the refl ection of the organization’s identity. In  relation to â€Å"Blackfish† the way the trainers and the company of Sea World treat the orcas has been exposed to the public altering the image of the company. Sea World used to be viewed as a place for families to go and enjoy watching trained Orcas do awesome tricks and entertain their audiences, where now it is seen as a place where animals are mistreated and held captive. Evaluation: This captivity is a huge controversy building up to protests against Sea World and leading to the bill put up by California to ban the act of keeping Orcas that were caught from the wild and keep them in captivity. Though there are Sea Worlds in Texas and Florida, the bill will immediately affect the California Sea World (Rohenkohl, 2014). If the bill were to pass, California would have to find a new way to entertain their guests or breed orcas that are not wildly caught (Martinez, 2014). The documentary, â€Å"Blackfish† caused much controversy and threatened the image of the Sea World Company. Conclusion: It would make a person wonder, if Brancheau was not attacked, would the true identity of Sea World been exposed? The image of Sea World being a happy escape has been reformed due to the fact that Orca’s being detained was proven to be a problem and a danger to not only to the trainers, but to the Orcas themselves. Orcas deserve to live in the open waters, free, and live the life span they are intended and not be confined within the tiny pools of Sea World. California may be the first to make a difference in Orca’s lives, now the rest of the world can be a part of the change. Annotation of Information Sources Martinez, Michael. (2014, March 8). Seaworld ‘Blackfish’ backlash: Richard Bloom calls for banning orca shows. Retrieved from http://www.wptv.com/news/state/seaworld-blackfish-backlash-richard-bloom-calls-for-banning-orca-shows

Case Analysis for Virgin Mobile Essay

VIRGIN MOBILE USA – ‘FIRST PRICE’ STRATEGY (An analysis of the Pricing Decision alternatives that Virgin has to undertake to create an alternate customer segment and monetize their buying power)VIRGIN XTRAS – OVERVIEWThe Virgin Mobile USA service involved content, features and entertainment, called â€Å"Virgin Xtras†.Collaboration with MTV networks as it was the most recognized youth brands in the country and unparalleled reach forthe under-30 market segment: Exclusive, multiyear content and marketing agreement. MTV network to deliver music, games and other MTV-, VH1-, and Nickelodeon based content to Virgin Mobile subscribers. Subscribers would have access to MTV- branded accessories and phones, graphics, ring tones, text alerts and voice mails. Promotional airtime on MTV’s channels and website. Virgin mobile subscribers to vote for their favorite videos on a few MTV shows.Other Virgin Mobile services that aimed to appeal to the youth market , generate additional usage and create loyaltywere: Text Messaging Online Real- Time Billing Rescue Ring Wake- Up Call Ring Tones Fun Clips The Hit List Music Messenger MoviesTraditional Channel Virgin’s ChannelServices sold at own proprietary retail outlets, kiosks in Services sold where youth shop especially consumermalls, high-end electronic stores, speciality stores etc. electronic goods in stores like Target, Sam Goody music stores, Best Buy. High-touch sales people who were paid high sales Products packaged in consumer electronics packaging, placedcommission to ensure hands-on service. on a bright red clamshell, which gave it visibility and no salesperson was required.Cost per handset from Nokia, Motorola, Samsung etc. – Cost per handset from Kyocera- $60-$100. Lesser subsidy$150-$300. Entailed substantial subsidy from the entailed by the company.handset makers, a component of acquisition cost.Distributors’ industry avg. Commission- $100/phone Distributors commission- $30/phone.The availability of the phones were not as segment Phones available at 3000 retail outlets in USA, and availabilityspecific as Virgin targeted included at retailers such as Sam Goody, Circuit City, Media Play, Virgin MegastoreBilling is monthly Billing is to be real-time and with online avenues PRICING DECISIONS:-CUSTOMER PERSPECTIVESThe company tried to distinguish itself from the competitors standpoint by playing on the fact that t he targeted segment‘did not trust  the prevalent pricing points’ in the industry that hinged on the credit worthiness . The main practicesprevalent were:- 90% of all subscribers had contractual agreements for a period of 1 year-2 years Required rigorous credit check Plans established â€Å"buckets† of minutes, on extra usage users penalized heavily. Charged less for off-peak than on-peak minutes, but the off-peak period had shrunk. An additional fee was charged to add to the monthly bill, which included taxes, service charges. Per minute Charge (Y-axis, in cents) for the bucket of minutes contracted (X-axis) 180 160 140 120 100 80 Per minute Charge for the bucket of minutes andcontracted (X-axis) 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140The bold line represents the cost per minute charged for a valid contract (which is shown by the arrows). The higher costin the vent of under-utilization of the contract is due to the high fixed cost (like the subsidization of hand sets,, contractcharges etc.)The higher limit in the vent of exceeding the contract is due to penalizing.PRICING DECISIONS – COMPAN Y PERSPECTIVESVirgin Mobile USA had to fix all these problems prevalent in the industry while taking a pricing decision. The mainconstraints it faced was that the prices should be competitive and profitable without triggering of competitive reactions.There were 3 options available:OPTION 1- ‘Clone the Industry Prices’ The message would go to customers that they were priced competitively with few advantages like differentiated applications [MTV] and superior customer service. Better off-peak hours and fewer hidden fees would be the selling point but the total pricing structure would still depend on off-peak and peak categorization as well as contacted minutes. Easy to promote as this strategy of â€Å"buckets† was already prevalent in industry. But risks alienating the target base as they already did not make the required cut for the credit worthiness. OPTION 2- ‘Price below the Competition’ Similar pricing structure as rest of industry, with actual prices slightly below those of competition only within the highest frequency range. Better off-peak hours and fewer hidden fees could also be given.OPTION 3- ‘A Whole New Plan’ Entirely different pricing structure. Eliminate contracts and going for prepaid pricing structure. However the nature of the American cellular market with operator dedicated handsets ad prohibitive pricing followed by the competitors due to high churn rates Cost of Acquisition Subsidization of Advertisement Sales handsets . Break even analysis and Life  time Value for cellular subscribers:- As already, stated in the current scenario, most mobile companies amass working capital by going for long term contracts. Compared to a US$ 100 acquisition cost for a prepaid connection, the equivalent historical cost of acquisition for a post paid consumer is US $ 370. Assuming that we stay with the post paid plan due to industry imperatives, we find that the average calling rate is around 10-30 cents per minute for a average bucket usage of 100-300 minutes (this is the target usage range that Virgin is aiming to target in the second option) Hence, average cost incurred by the company for a customer = US$ (0.1 x 300) =US$ 60 (The most promising aspect in the relevant range) Acquisition cost = handset subsidy given to hand set manufacturers (US$ 60 -100) + advertisement costs ( US$60 million budget spread over an estimated 1 million subscribers = US$60)+ sales overheads (US$100-150) = US$ 290-370 per user per month. Now, Breakeven point in terms of month is calculated as:- Total fixed cost = US$ 370 (acquisition cost for a post paid customer) = 28.46 months Revenue – Variable cost US$ 57 (avg. revenue per month from a user- ARPU) – US$30Hence it takes around 29 months for the customer to prove profitable for the company even in the most promisingscenario of the relevant range.But we will also have to induct the churn rate of around 2% per month into this optimistic consideration and try tocalculate the LTV. If the LTV is positive then the company should go ahead. The option that yields the largest LTV shouldbe chosen.LTV = ∑ (Ma).r(a-1) – Acquisition cost (1+i)a View slide Here, the margin remains relatively fixed across the periods which can be assumed as a modest 12%, r is the retentionrate which comes to around 72% (churn rate of 2% p.m. compounded monthly over a year = 1.02Ãâ€"1.02x†¦..till 12months ), i becoming interest rate assumed to be around 5%Margin in a month = (Average monthly phone bill ∞,=US$52)-(Cash cost per user =US$30) = US$22Now taking this value of n we have :- LTV = M/(1-r+i)Now calculating the LTV for every option available will give us a marker of how the pricing strategy should be used forusing various options considering the fact that the interest rate remains constant at 5%:-For option 1:-LTV = US$ {(22*12)/(1-0.72+0.05) } – 360= US$ 421For option 2:- Here the retention rate can be assumed to have been bettered by differential pricing in the 100-300minutes usage category , so we can assume a modest increase to 80%. But this is more or less offset by the increase incash cost to user which  can be assumes to rise by 5% if the differential pricing is 5% below the average industrystandard. So the margin can be assumed to drop to US$19. Here, LTV = US$ {(19*12)/(1-0.8+0.05) } – 360= US$ 489Hence we can see that even with modest assumptions, the LTV is maximized for Option 2, henca the company shouldventure into differential pricing if at all it wants to deviate. But considering the high acquisition turnover time andrecovery time of almost 29 months, it is a risky strategy because of very high mobility in the targeted segment.Hence Virgin should focus on non price factors such as :- If the contracts are done away with, this will ensure more loyalty of the target segment as the majority of them are not credit worthy. The positioning of Virgin Mobile USA and its collaborations with partners like MTV will attract more customers which are loyal. The cost of acquisition of a customer comprises of advertisement, sales cost and subsidy given. Since these costs are much lower than the other competitors, they can price themselves lower than competitors. They can also be transparent in their cost structure, eliminating hidden costs .Hence, initially it should give non-price advantage to its customers and over a period of time can reduce costs to sustaingrowth and drive off competition virgin mobile Presentation Transcript We Answer To A Higher Calling Prepared By – Team 4 Pooja Gupta (P122033) Rohit Singh (P122038) Saurabh Singh (P122041) Varun Anand (P122049 Virgin Groupâ€Å"Virgin believes in making a difference. We stand for value for money, quality, innovation, fun and a sense of competitive challenge. We strive to achieve this by empowering our employees to continually deliver an unbeatable customer experience.† Virgin Mobile USA†¢ Commenced operations in June, 2002†¢ Led by founding CEO Dan Schulman†¢ Entered USA as a 50-50 joint venture between Virgin Group and Sprint Corporation. Virgin Mobile USA’s service would be hosted on Sprint’s PCS network†¢ Sprint was in process of updating its network and increasing its capacity. View slide Virgin Mobile USA†¢ Schulamn- â€Å"The nice thing about this model is that we don’t have to worry about huge fixed costs or the physical infrastructure. We can focus on what we do best-understanding and meeting customer needs.†Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ â€Å"We Answer To A Higher Calling†Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ Providing extra-ordinary services and experiences at a low price as $35 View slide Objective†¢ Create value and profitability in cell  phone service industry†¢ Target market ages 15-29, opportunity for growth with this market segment†¢ 1 million subscribers by year 1, 3 million by year 4†¢ â€Å"By focusing on the youth market from the ground up, we’re putting ourselves in a position to serve these customers in a way they have never been served before† -Dan Schulman, CEO, Virgin Mobile USA 4P’s of Virgin Mobile USAWhy? Problem with Current Telecom Services†¢ Low penetration among consumers aged 15-29. Growth rate for this segment was projected to be robust for the next 5 years†¢ Target group had been undeserved by existing carriers and specific needs that haven’t been met†¢ Average monthly cell phone bill – $52 representing 417 minutes of use. Hence, cost to serve a customer – $30†¢ Carriers tended to be wary of acquiring low- value subscribers Target Group and Behavior†¢ Consumers aged 15-29†¢ Calling pattern is different from typical business person†¢ Open to new things: – Text messaging – Downloading information using cell phones – More likely to use: ringtones, faceplates and graphics †¢ It’s a fashion accessory and a personal style statement Mobile Penetration by Age Group Revenue from Mobile Entertainment Services Pricing Trend in US before Virgin†¢ Over 90% of all subscribers had contractual agreements for a period of 1-2 years with their cellular providers†¢ Customers would sign up for ‘buckets of minutes’†¢ If a user used more than allocated minutes, they would be charged with extremely high rates (eg: 40 cents / minute)†¢ If a user used less than allocated minutes, they were still charged the fixed monthly fee, which drove up their price per minute Calling Plans – Industry PricesPrice per minute Contract Commitment – Minutes Calling Plans – Industry PricesPrice per Minute Contract Commitment – Minutes Pricing Trend in US before Virgin†¢ Carriers charged less for off-peak than on-peak minutes†¢ Off-peak time changed from 6:00 PM to 7:00, 8:00 and then finally 9:00 PM†¢ Some carriers charged a monthly fee (appox. $7) to move the peak time back to one hour†¢ Carriers added additional fees to monthly bill (tax or other additional cost information was not communicated. So a $29 plan ended up being a $35 plan) What Virgin focused on?†¢ Customers couldn’t predict their usage and ended up choosing  wrong plan pattern†¢ Customers think they use more minutes than they actually use†¢ Target segment actually used 100-300 mins/month but target predicted their usage is higher than that†¢ People tried picking up lower bucket plans to avoid high monthly fees but they ended up paying a lot more than that due to usage of minutes above the bucket†¢ On-peak and off-peak minutes weren’t in right mix 4P’s of Virgin Mobile USAWhat? What to provide them? VirginXtras†¢ Delivery of content, features and entertainment†¢ Signed a exclusive and multiyear, content & marketing agreement with MTV networks to deliver music, games and other MTV, VH1 and Nickelodeon based content to Virgin Mobile Subscribers†¢ Deal with MTV also ensured airtime on MTV’s channel and web site VirginXtras†¢ MTV-branded accessories and phones and contents (ringtones, text alerts and voice mails†¢ To vote for their favorite videos on MTV’s shows like â€Å"Total request Live†Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ Text messaging – No. of text msgs tends to skyrocket during school hours. Reason: Parents don’t see who they call, private form of communication VirginXtras†¢ Online Real-Time Billing – No call detail on monthly bills. Website will record individual calls on a real-time basis†¢ Rescue ring – Mobile subscriber will get a call at prearranged time to â€Å"escape† in case a date was not going well .†¢ Wake-up Call – Chance to wake up to original messages from a variety of cheeky celebrity VirginXtras†¢ Ring Tones – Customized ringtones would be available for subscribers to download†¢ Fun clips – News, tidbits, jokes, gossip, sports and more†¢ Hit List – Vote top 10 list of hit songs. Would be able to hear the %age of other subscribers who either â€Å"loved it† or â€Å"hated it† VirginXtras†¢ Music Messenger – Tap into 10 songs list & forward it to a friend allowing them to check out a hot new track†¢ Movies – Movie descriptions, show timings, and buy tickets in advance Handset: First 2 basic models named â€Å"Party Animal† and â€Å"Super Model† came with interchangeable faceplates decorated with eye-catching colors and patterns 4P’s of Virgin Mobile USAHow? Virgin’s Goal†¢ To make sure their prices are competitive†¢ To make sure they could make profit†¢ Don’t want to trigger off competitive reactions Options†¢ Clone the Industry Prices†¢ Price Below Competition†¢ Whole New Plan Clone the Industry Prices†¢ Use same prices as other competitors†¢ Communicate  -â€Å"priced competitively with everyone else but with a few key advantages like differentiated applications (MTV) and superior customer service† – MTV Applications and features – Superior Customer service†¢ Offering better off-peak hours and fewer hidden fees†¢ Put on packaging so that even without a salesperson, consumers would get the message Price per minute Contract Commitment – Minutes Clone the Industry Prices Price Below the Competition†¢ Maintain buckets and volume discounts†¢ Set price per minute below the industry average for certain key buckets – Target young market 100-300 mins Price per minute Contract Commitment – Minutes Price Below the Competition A Whole New Plan†¢ Shorten or Eliminate Contracts – Contracts guarantee annuity stream – Contract allows 18 years or below to purchase the product – Churn rate was 2%, new plan could increase churn rate to 6%†¢ Prepaid service – 92% US subscribers had Post-paid – Pre-paid was used on occasional basis as rates per minute was high and no credit check was required – Has high churn rates. Company would never be able to recoup its customer acquisition costs – New mechanism or infrastructure was required for prepaid services A Whole New Plan†¢ Handset subsidies – Mobile carriers subsidized the cost of handset to end users to acquire customer cost†¢ Eliminate Hidden Fees and off-peak hours – ‘what you see is what you get’ – Rolling out hidden costs into pricing such that pricing feels competitive – off-peak should benefit the target group. Minute usage is very different from busines s class Price Below the Competition What they did?†¢ LTV Model – Life Time Value†¢ In marketing, customer lifetime value (CLV), lifetime customer value (LCV), or user lifetime value (LTV) is a prediction of the net profit attributed to the entire future relationship with a customer†¢ Simplified Model†¢ LTV = (M/(1-r+i)) – AC Factors influencing LTV†¢ ARPU: Avg Revenue Per User†¢ CCPU: Cash Cost per User = 45% of ARPU†¢ M: Monthly Margin = ARPU – CCPU†¢ r: Retention rate ( 1 – (12*6%)) = 0.28†¢ AC: Acquisition Cost ( = $120 for Virgin) – Sale commission – Advertising per gross add – Subsidy cost LTV Calculation†¢ LTV = (M/(1-r+i))  Ã¢â‚¬â€œ AC†¢ => M = ARPU – CCPU = (1 – 45)% = 55%M on yearly basis, assuming that a customer talks for 200mins. M = (1-0.45) * 200 * 12 * p p -> can be 5 – 30 cents/min (As competitors are charging more than 30 cents/min LTV @ Different Price Points†¢ LTV(at 5 c ents)= (1-.45) (200*12*.05) /(1-.28 + .05) – 120 = -34.28†¢ LTV(at 7 cents)= (1-.45) (200*12*.07) /(1-.28 + .05) – Break-even120 = 0 point†¢ LTV(at 10 cents)= (1-.45) (200*12*.1) /(1-.28 + .05) – 120 = 51.42†¢ LTV(at 15 cents)= (1-.45) (200*12*.15) /(1-.28 + .05) – 120 = 137.14†¢ At 7 cents, the LTV =0 which tells that minimum of 7 cents should be charged by the virgin†¢ Virgin can charge any amount more than 7 cents LTV @ Different Price Points Price Point LTV5 cents / minute -34.287 cents / minute 010 cents / minute 51.4215 cents / minute 137.14 Break-even point Current Plans in Market Company Plan ValueAT&T Starting at $40/monthVirgin Mobile USA $35T-Mobile $34.99 (Only talk + text) other plans starting at $59.99 Providing a plan with music and other added features Virgin’s Service Offering†¢ Extra features: Music, Wallpapers, Videos, Live Video Request, Rescue ring, wake-up call facility†¢ New improved billing pattern and online real-time monthly bills†¢ Prepaid plan†¢ No contracts†¢ No hidden charges†¢ No peak off peak hours†¢ Very low handset subsidies†¢ No credit checks†¢ No Monthly bills†¢ Price: 25 cents per minute for the first 10 minutes; 10 cents/minute for the rest of the day†¢ No exact numbers, but churn rate lower than 6% Conclusion†¢ Virgin correctly identified service gaps in telecom industry and what customers needed.†¢ Virgin identify inflexibility in calling plans and in other plans.†¢ Provided extra services than current mobile carriers.†¢ Provided a medium of entertainment on go.†¢ Offered customized services at a relatively low cost. References†¢ HBR case study â€Å"Virgin Mobile USA: Pricing for the Very First Time†Ã¢â‚¬ ¢ Wikipedia.com

Bis Corporation Essay

Prepare a written report with the results organized in tables. Submit your project to me via email by the deadline. In your email should include your written report in pdf format and your Excel implementation. Attach the two documents to your email separately, do not compress the two into an archive file, e.g. zip, rar, 7z. This can be undertaken as a group project or you may choose to work individually. You may work as a team of maximum of 4 students. Significant points will be deducted if you fail to follow the above instructions, submit only an Excel document, or submit the work of someone else. Bis Corporation Recall the Bis Corporation example covered in class. SKUs are aggregated into 3 groups. Customers are aggregated into 25 groups. Project data is uploaded as an Excel workbook. In this workbook SKU groups value, volume and weight data are given. Monthly demand AVG and STD values for each customer group are given in SKUs. Highway distances between all Turkish cities are given. The distances in the diagonal of the matrix corresponds to the average distance of two points (e.g. factory-warehouse or warehouse-customer) within the same city. There are two factories: Kocaeli plant produces S01 and S02 groups only, Adana plant produces S03 group only. Warehouse parameters and annual fixed costs are given. Inbound transportation is carried out on semi-trailer trucks, outbound transportation on regular trucks. There two alternatives to be compared: A1 with 2 warehouses and A2 with 5 warehouses. a) Calculate and present in a table inbound and outbound unit cost of transportation of each SKU group. For each SKU group and truck type first find whether the truck capacity (number of SKUs that can be loaded) is limited by volume or weight. Then use the load factor to calculate how many SKUs can be loaded on average. Then calculate the cost of transporting one SKU to a distance of 100km. b) For alternative A1 calculate monthly costs. Calculate the monthly outbound transportation costs for each customer group and SKU group. Calculate the monthly inbound cost of transporting SKUs from factories warehouses. Calculate the average inventory levels at each warehouse by volume and value. Calculate the required warehouse capacities and then which warehouse choice will be made. Then find the corresponding warehouse fixed cost (convert it into a monthly cost). Calculate the monthly holding costs and handling costs at each warehouse. Finally calculate the monthly total cost as the sum of all costs. c) Repeat part (b) for alternative A2.

Using and interpreting statistics Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1750 words

Using and interpreting statistics - Essay Example There are minimal numbers of diabetics with gene A. The Sensitivity of the study of gene A is equal to 0.22222, which means that the patient with gene A and true gene A rate is quite low. Specificity is equal to 0.38095. Informational data from a study associated with childhood diabetes, informational data from a heart and lung surgery, and informational data from transfusion orthopaedic surgery were collected, tabulated and statistically treated with 95% confidence interval, risk ratio, probability, chi square, mean, standard deviation, standard error.Statistics or data is synonymous to informational figures that can be derived from investigatory processes and whose meanings can be interpreted after analysis.In addition, the development in electronic technology enhances the manipulation of such informational data for close to precise clinical assessments and supervisions. The rejection group has a rate of four (4) or thirteen point thirty three percent (13.33%) gene A. On the other hand, the sure group has a rate of fourteen (14) or forty six point sixty seven percent (46.67); hence there are minimal numbers of diabetics with gene A. The Sensitivity reading of gene A is equal to 0.22222; hence respondents with gene A and true gene A rate is small. Specificity is equal to 0.38095, about one third of the probability of without gene A. So, there is a thirty percent or zero point thirty probability of gene A, the risk of gene A, its estimated probability. The exposed cases probability is 0.4667, while the exposed in control while the probability is 0.1333. The total exposed has 0.3000, with 95% confidence, and an interval of 1.410185 to 27.15574 which include unknown mean . a) The research design used is randomized controlled trial, entailing random allocation of different interventions to the patiens. . b) Using proportion statistics treatment of the informational data on Table 2, the risk of childhood diabetes for individuals with gene A compared with those without gene A can be designed. c) The informational data substantiates Ho: gene "A" is associated with childhood diabetes because fourteen or 46.67 percent representing minimal numbers of diabetics with gene A meant a Sensitivity study 0.22222. So, the small number of respondents with gene A is found with Specificity 0.38095, almost one third of the probability of without gene A. Therefore, 30% or 0.30 probability of gene A in childhood, the risk of gene A, its estimated probability. d) The research intends discovering the possibility of gene "A" being associated with childhood diabetes. Results showed diabetics under the rejection group was rated 4, having 13.33 percent gene A present, while the sure group was rated 14, or 46.67 percent. So, there are insignificant numbers of diabetics with gene A. The Sensitivity gene A is 0.22222, meaning patient with gene A and true gene A rate is small, Specificity is 0.38095, roughly one third the probability of without gene A. Therefore 30% or 0.30 probability is the risk of gene A, its estimated probability. The exposed cases probability of 0.4667 and the probability of the exposed control 0.1333, has a rate of 0.3000 with 95% confidence and interval 1.410185 to 27.15574 with the unknown mean . Question 2 Within four years of hearts and lungs transplantations, a total of 138 organs were received. Out of this, 97 hearts were transplanted or 70.29 percent, and 41 Lungs or 29.71 percent. This means that there were more hearts transplanted than lungs. Negative skew or skewed to the left is indicated by mean value of 46.48454, which is lower than median (50) and median is lower than mode (59). This also means a longer left tail, extreme low scores with low frequency. This implies that there were more adult recipients of heart transplant than young adults. The distribution of the lungs organ in age at transplant was group into smallest and largest. The grouping showed that it skewed to

The use of drones in the United States Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

The use of drones in the United States - Essay Example However, there is a lot of debate that have been sparked on the legality, efficacy and morality of this practice, even though, capable drones have versatile uses. In the current times, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was ordered by the Obama’s administration to come up with a plan in order to permit unarmed drones within the United States airspace. Such a decision was as a result of the tremendous demand arising from different stakeholders such as Border Patrol, police, agencies, organizations and businesses in their quest to use them in future. This paper addresses the pros and cons of the legalization of drones for commercial use by companies/organizations in the United States. The pros of the use of drones in the United States by border patrol police, agencies, organizations, and businesses. Drones can be used to save lives. These devices can be used to reduce significantly the frequency and exposure of military personnel during war. Another benefit of drones is the low cost. These devices are affordable when purchasing and the costs incurred in maintaining or fueling them are significantly lower compared to ordinary and regular airplanes. Needless to say, there is low risk involved as a result of military hardware since these devices are comparatively smaller and can, therefore, fly at lower altitudes as opposed to the traditional airplanes. There is the benefit of comparatively longer operational hours without any fatigue. This is because drones do not have human pilots and can, therefore, stay in operation for a long time.

Culture influences on leadership processes Essay

Culture influences on leadership processes - Essay Example In this paper, the proponent tries to specifically emphasise the specific influence of culture on the leadership process. In line with this, guidelines for how leaders can adapt their communication to diverse cultures are included. What is culture? Man from the start struggled to survive with nature. Everything was not learned in an instant event but humans have to undergo trial and error process. This paved way to their important experiences with nature. It is therefore implied that culture is a result of experiences from humans’ struggle for survival with nature that eventually resulted to belief, art, law, moral, customs, capabilities and habits (Ayisi, 1992). Today, these are widely observed as integral parts of everyone’s daily survival in every part of the world. Due to different and constant experiences encountered by people everyday, culture has become a system consisting of interrelated and interdependent habit pattern of response (Kroeber and Kluckhohn, 1978). Every individual has different way to respond to a certain experience. The form of response is also dependent on the available ideas and patterns of activities generated from different experiences. Culture therefore has become easy to be identified through knowing how people live, what clothes they wear, what foods they eat, what language they speak, stories they tell and celebrations they celebrate as far as knowing how they survive is concerned (Kalman, 2009). This makes culture as a way of life because it tries to define the entire being of a person. From the day an individual arrived in this planet, the entire event did not start with picking up the right thing in order. Everything had to undergo a series of events of experiences from top to bottom. This means that an individual had to struggle to come up with the right process in order to discover the right and appropriate response to every situation. Culture therefore is such a broad concept because of its connection with the human lives. It is an integral part of daily survival and without it there is no enough basis of measuring how far an individual has gone through in life. From the standpoint of cultural anthropology, culture encompasses the idea about shared concepts, values, beliefs and adaptive system (Lyman, 2008). Every nation has an idea about shared concepts, beliefs, values and adaptive system. Japanese are known for their loyalty, courtesy and other good values that are considered to be important parts of where their country right now. Their cultural values are considered integral parts of how they achieve things in life and how they face situations and circumstances. Cultural values for them are very important because this is how they should consider themselves in relation to dealing with other people not only with their own race but other people in the world. Values are very important for Japanese that even on how they achieve things with economic considerations, they considered price an d quality as the most important considerations why people should go for their products. As a result, Japanese are among of the leading innovators in the world with considerable emphasis on their cutting-edge technology. The United States has certain beliefs and shared concepts about the American way of life. Part of their culture is the belief that when a certain thing is priced expensive, then it must have substantial positive impact on quality. On the other

International Conflict Resolution Research Paper

International Conflict Resolution - Research Paper Example Ethnic conflict threatened the territorial integrity of countries throughout the world including Somalia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Liberia in Africa; Bosnia and Kosovo in Eastern Europe; state-sponsored ethnic cleansing in East Timor in Asia and extreme violence on the North American island nation of Haiti. Although ethnic conflict and humanitarian crises have existed since the dawn of time, for the first time ever images of extreme bloodshed, violence, and even genocide were broadcast into the homes of everyday Americans through international television stations like the Cable News Network (CNN), Fox and the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC). Despite shocking violence perpetrated by a variety of militia forces in the Western African countries of Sierra Leone and Liberia, the international community, by and large, stood still while extreme violence and crimes against humanity were carried out with seeming impunity. While it is evident that conflict has been endemic in the modern post-Cold War world, how has conflict been resolved in recent times? There are a variety of theories to international conflict resolution including peacebuilding, peacekeeping, and Alternative Dispute Resolution. This essay will discuss each theoretical paradigm and will persuasively show that peacebuilding and peacekeeping go hand in hand and that they are the most viable means through which global conflict can be managed and averted. We will explore the case of Sierra Leone and argue that it emphatically demonstrates that international actors must work to maintain the peace in societies which have experienced incredible violence and social collapse and that both peacekeeping and peacebuilding must take place in order to heal old wounds and ensure that conflict does not reemerge. Alternative Dispute Resolution is a third-party resolution process whereby mediation is undertaken by an external party to help resolve the c onflict.  

Analysis Of Buying Decision And Consumer Behavior Research Paper

Analysis Of Buying Decision And Consumer Behavior - Research Paper Example Outlooks are influenced by personality, learning, demographics, social forces, and perception (Holbrook, 1999). Marketers attempt to build favorable consumer outlooks toward their products/services. Outlooks embody sentiments toward a good originating from values, ideas, and beliefs. As a result, consumers form beliefs and ideas about products/services and their features. Outlooks reveal the decision whether to purchase a want or a need. One of the most prominent models of linking outlooks to consumer behavior and decision making is employed by the University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center (Michman et al., 2003). The purposes of consumer spending for expensive goods are examined. For instance, buyers are interviewed if they have a certain desire to make a purchase, a possible desire to purchase, an uncertain choice to purchase, or a certain objective not to purchase a new house equipment or car over a specific time period. Outlooks are normally very hard to alter, yet marketers may be capable of attaining the change in outlooks through open and effective communication, specifically if the perceptions of consumers about the product are inaccurate. The outlooks of consumers toward brands are relevant due to the fact that these outlooks do affect consumer choices and behavior. Change in outlooks requires transforming the motivational aspect linking the product/service to a specific class or occasion or altering perceptions about the products of competitors (Holbrook, 1999).

An economic analysis of hanger film movie Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

An economic analysis of hanger film movie - Essay Example The movie that is of interest in this case is entitled Hunger Games. It is a movie produced by Gary Ross and was released in March 2012. With this particular movie in perspective the issues that are to be looked at revolve around the production budget, the expenses incurred thereafter, sat in marketing together with the revenue that is generated upon its release and thereafter. The estimated budget for the production of the movie was in the region of $78 million. Quite a large budget it was but the fact that the global reception of the movie was not a letdown is something worth writing home about. A movie is considered a success in economic terms if the revenue generated from its sales in cinemas and individuals surpasses the breakeven point to the extent that the revenue gotten from sales is able to cover all the expenses incurred in the development and at the same time generate a profit. The revenue that was generated from the movie puts the movie in the same league as some of the mentionable movies that have been produced over the years. Upon the first weekend after its release, the movie was able to rake in a total of $152.5 million dollars in the U.S. alone. This was just but the United States only. Further afield in a country like Denmark the movie was able to rake in close to $4.5 million. These figures are only in relation to the showing of the movie in theatres and does not necessarily reflect the actual amount that is to be realized after considering even the individual purchases. What this points out is that the reception of the movie on a global level was quite positive. So far in the U.S. alone the movie has had a gross domestic total of close to $340 million dollars. The financial statistics also speak a lot about the movie. The fact that it has been able to topple the list when put side by side with other big movies such as Titanic in 3-D is something quite commendable. In the weekend of 14th April 2012 the

Critical Context of law Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Critical Context of law - Case Study Example tax inspectorate. Mandox had purchased Bleak Hall when the property market was cheap. It is obvious that Mandox had purchased Bleak Hall as part of his investment plan. Bleak Hall belongs to Mandox although his wife, Muriel, uses it more often for political reasons. His wife, Muriel, and three daughters have judicially enforceable rights in the ownership, use and occupation of Bleak Hall. There is no mention of Muriel's and their daughters' rights anywhere concerning Bleak Hall. However, Muriel's status as Charles Mandox's wife gives her judicially enforceable rights. This could prove useful in case of any divorce claims, although there is no mention anywhere of Charles and Muriel contemplating divorce. Apart from Muriel and their children, no one else has any right or claim on Bleak Hall. Charles Mandok may spend much of his time taking drinks. However, he has sharp business sense. The possibility of anyone other than Muriel making any claim on Bleak Hall is remote. Mandok is too powerful and ruthless to tolerate any third party claims on Bleak Hall. However, Muriel makes good use of Bleak Hall. She sensed rightly that in the emotional vacuum of Bleak Hall she would encounter little opposition to her own designs. A political career, she adjudged, needed a prosperous backcloth. Bleak Hall was close to the residence of the then prime minister, Tony Blair. What additionally would Muriel Mandox need to have done or be able to demonstrate to show a legal or equitable interest in Bleak Hall Charles Mandox uses Muriel's paycheck to pay for the outgoings and maintenance of Bleak Hall. Muriel could have asked for co-ownership of Bleak Hall. Muriel is quick-tempered and Charles is ruthless. The couple has lived through to see three children, all daughters, although most of the children's time is spent with girls hired as childcare. Muriel is so caught up with her political career that she does not consider as necessary the need to spend time to talk with Charles Mandox about their property affairs. For a man of wealth like Charles Mandox, it is necessary to have property and financial affairs well sorted out to take care of any contingencies. Her background as a miner's daughter and traumatic home life did not breed in her the systematic and planned thinking of those used to sophistication. Her father had disappeared after having a bottle smashed on his head by her mother. Her socialist background and political proclivities aroused in her the grandiose prospects of career in politics. Her political life brought out her innate qualities of quick thinking that included brilliant albeit raw calculations. She had first joined the Conservative party and then switched over to the Labor. The first time Charles called her out on a date, she almost told him to go to hell. His persistence on dating her

Special Education Article Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Special Education - Article Example avior, of which William was also observed to exhibit: inattention: â€Å"often does not seem to listen when spoken to directly† (cited in Foley, Carlton, & Howell, 1996, pp. 341-342); hyperactivity: â€Å"often leaves seat in classroom or in other situations in which remaining seated is expected; often runs about or climbs excessively in situations in which it is inappropriate† (APA, 1994, cited in Foley, Carlton, & Howell, 1996, p. 342). Concurrently, the behaviors that suggest that this may be a conduct disorder are as follows: aggression: â€Å"often bullies, threatens, or intimidates; often initiates physical fights; has been physically cruel to people† (APA, 1994, cited in Foley, Carlton, & Howell, 1996, p. 342); and destruction of property: â€Å"has deliberately destroyed others property† (APA, 1994, cited in Foley, Carlton, & Howell, 1996, p. 342). In making any recommendations or actions to address William’s dilemma, the legal considerations that must be taken into account include the use of excess force to restrain William and which could cause harm and injury to him; and implementing interventions that run counter to those recommended by the DHS or the surrogate mother, without proper court order or legal approval. Foley, H., Carlton, C., & Howell, R. (1996). The Relationship of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and Conduct Disorder to Juvenile Delinquency: Legal Implications. Retrieved from Bull Am Acad Psychiatry Law:

Importance of Peer Review Essay Example for Free

Importance of Peer Review Essay A student in a graduate program must conduct research during the course of study. The purpose of this assignment is to discuss how one can determine which references are credible and which are not. Importance of Peer Review As a scholar-practitioner it is of utmost importance to know that information is obtained from a source which is peer reviewed. When a journal or article has been designated as peer reviewed this means that the information has been submitted to several of the authors peers for content review. The reviewers must agree that the information has been gathered through the use of proper research methods, and that it is accurate and original. Knowing that Articles Retrieved are from Peer-Reviewed Journals The articles I downloaded for this week’s application are peer reviewed. The Walden University library has a search feature which allows one to find only peer reviewed articles quickly and easily. This is the procedure I followed when obtaining my articles. If an article is obtained from a source other than the Walden library, verification of peer review can be done through Ulrich’s Periodicals Directory. Importance of Peer Reviewed Articles My area of interest is nursing education. It is important that the information I share with students has been peer reviewed. I want to make sure it is accurate and credible. Summary In summary, it is essential for students in a graduate program to always make sure resources utilized for research are peer reviewed. The information obtained for assignments must be reliable and accurate. References Cornell University. (April 5, 2011). Cornell University Library. Retrieved from http://olinuris.library.cornell.edu/ref/research/skill20.html Walden University. (2011). Walden University Library. Retrieved from http://library.waldenu.edu/689.htm

Quantitative and Qualitative Comparative Approaches

Quantitative and Qualitative Comparative Approaches Comparative Education What Are the Strengths and Weaknesses of Quantitative and Qualitative Comparative Approaches? Introduction Virtually it is impossible for comparison not to exist, since it is a major part of human nature. Anything that exists and can be thought about has the potential to be compared. Swansen (1971: 145) stated that THINKING WITHOUT comparison is unthinkable, so is all scientific thought and scientific research. When the term comparative approach is used in the general sense it is a vital attribute in the field of social scientific methodology. In the general sense it may be assumed that all social scientific methods are comparative. However, in the field of sociology the term is more restricted to the explicit study and comparison of different societies; in an effort to determine the alike and different attributes of the societies (Eastthope 1974). However, some researches in this field of study have developed the position over the years that there is no uniqueness about this field of inquiry. One such researcher is Smelser (1976) who indicated that there is no separate goal recognised by comparative and non comparative researcher because they both describe societal trends by creating limitations over situations and case variants that occur in those trends. Ragin (1989), however, maintained that the comparative approach is a distinctive field because it can be characterised as having an undeviating experiential functioning of the nonfigurative notion of society that has a high level of notions. Based on this, Ragin stated that this is what differentiates compartivists and non- comparativits. Therefore it may be assumed that the comparative approach involves the studying of one society and comparing it to more than one case (society) based on their societal factors such as culture, politics, etc., and determining their similari ties and differences and attributing them to why phenomenon exists in the society being analysed. There are two major methods that researchers can apply when they conduct comparative research. These two approaches are called the comparative quantitative and comparative qualitative approaches. Therefore, in this essay I will be discussing the strengths and weaknesses of quantitative and qualitative comparative approaches. However, firstly I will conceptualise the term comparative approach within the tradition of social science and then I will define discuss the consequences this has for education. Reference will then be made the three stages the comparative approach evolved in education and the major principles that the comparative approach is hinged on. The qualitative and quantitative comparative approaches will then be defined; their features and functions, advantages and disadvantages will be discussed. I will then discuss what the best approach the comparative approach is; then I will finally be discussing the consequences that the comparative approach has for education. Conceptualising the Comparative Approach In the broad field of sociology the comparative approach may be defined as relating to a type of evaluation that contrasts one ideology or investigative plan aligned with others. It may have a possibility of being replaced by another one that can be used to explicate the same others that would explain the same common trend (Gerring 2008). Furthermore, Keaty (2008) stated that the comparative approach is the primary scientific process existing, that an individual can utilise to control theories and analyse the correlations of more than one variable, while maintaining all invariance that can latently alter factors. The main purpose of the comparative approach in this field of study is to construct a justification of worldwide trends that are common to these societies but also allows researchers to analyse the more intricate trends of a society Ragain (1987). Therefore, it may be assumed that through the use of the comparative approach researches are capable of distinguishing that a sou nd empirical elucidation is pertinent to a diverse number of situations, however it still provides the researcher the opportunity to identify that societal trends are multifaceted and that a broad rationalisation is an incomplete rationalisation. Ragin (1989) further purported that the comparative approach is a rational approach and as a result it is hinged on John Stuart Mills (1888) principles of inductive inquiry. John Stuart Mills (1888) as cited in Etzioni and Du Bow (1970) called these three principles are called method of agreement, method of difference and the indirect method of difference. The method of agreement may be explained as if two or more cases of the occurrence that is being examined have one condition that is similar, it is assumed that this condition in which all the occurrence concur, is the origin of the specified trend. Therefore in order for an occurrence to be necessary it must occur in each situation (206-208). Furthermore, it may be assumed that in this instance the comparativits would be concerned with investigating situations where the condition can be identified and therefore by default conditions that are not recorded would not be necessary for the occurrence(s) to transpire. The method of agreement that Mills (1888), as noted in Etzioni and Du Bow (1970), formulated may be explained as if an occurrence in which the trend under analysis takes place, and an occurrence in which it does not transpire, and the occurrence is the equivalent one should be reserved, that one taking place before; the condition(s) and the two cases that are different may be termed as the effect or a vital aspect of what caused the trend to take place. The final method that Mill (1888) defined, that the comparative approach is grounded on, is the indirect method of agreement. This method Mills indirect method of difference is the use of the method of agreement twice (208-210). Researchers draft cross tabulations in an effort to establish if trends are existent and if the result present/present or absent/absent then the notion can be maintained. When compartivists apply this method it has three major steps these are: the dual employment of the indirect method of difference and the step which is related to the elimination of challenging single elements of clarification through opposite comparisons. However, when the comparative approach is applied in education it may be defined as being a combination of pedagogy and the social sciences. The comparative approach in education deals with the structure and purpose a school serves. It is suggested by Noah and Eckstein (1969) that the field of education and the social sciences have merged because researches have focused on analogous types of statistics and congruent subject matters. Furthermore, the other reason for this merger between fields is the noticeable interest in quantitative and experiential and approaches of investigation (Noah and Eckstein 1969). The application of the comparative approach in education is purposeful for four main reasons. Crossley and Watson (2004) have tried to identify these purposes. Firstly, it allows stakeholders to comprehend their own educational structure. Secondly, it provides individuals with the opportunity to also be able to comprehend other peoples educational structures, their cultures and i ts societal interactions. Thirdly, individuals would be able to recognise contrast educational structures, procedures and effects as a means of recording and comprehending the issues in education, and assistance to the development of educational guiding principles and traditions. Fourthly and finally it supports enhanced global comprehending and collaboration owing to augmented understanding to various beliefs and traditions of the world. When the comparative approach is applied in the field of education it is hinged on the various stages that evolved from. They are two major theories that are used to explain this process. According to Bereday (1964) as noted in Bray, Adamson and Mason (2007) the development of the comparative approach in education went through three steps. The first step he insinuated occurred during the 19th century and was established by Marc- Antonie Jullien the first known methodically, academic comparative educationalist. This period was referred to as borrowing. Bereday (1964) stated that during this phase great importance was focused on the categorisation of explanatory facts. After that emphasis was placed on contrasting the information collected in an effort to determine the preeminent traditions that a country was using with the purpose of implementing them in other countries. Beredays (1964) second step in the development of the comparative approach in education transpired within the firs t 50 years of the 20th century. This phase, he contended was pioneered by Sir Michael Sadler in the United Kingdom and it emphasised that educational structures are interlinked complicatedly to the nation that maintains them. Beredeys (1964) last step involved interpretation which stresses the development of the evolving of hypothesis and approaches and the apparent creation of the stages of comparative processes and strategies to assist the improvement of ideologies. According to Bereday (1964) as noted in Bray et al (2007) this modern new historical era that examined was a extension of the conventions of the phases of guessing, but it proposed that preceding guessing and ultimate borrowing is endeavoured it is essential that the subject is methodically implemented and applied to the educational policies. Comparative social science is also important in the field of comparative education. The process of borrowing and analysing educational systems across countries are very important for the existence of this field. As such, the use of the quantitative and qualitative approach is also important in comparative education research. The general field of comparative research is generally associated with applying the qualitative approach because cases have to be analysed. However, when applied in education there is a greater need for compartivists to apply the quantitative approach. This demand was brought about because of the move in focus contained in the discipline of comparative education from chronological, descriptive investigations in the direction of investigations applying arithmetical data and quantitative data analysis methods (Bray et. al 2007). The Two Approaches to Comparative Research As previously mentioned they are two major means by which researchers approach their investigations, through the application of either the quantitative or qualitative approach. In this section I will be discussing these both approaches in the broad social science field and then I will be discussing them as they are applied to the field of comparative education. According to Picciano (2004) the major differences between the both approaches when applied in education are based on the rationale of the investigation, the type of information to be collected, the method by which the collected information would be scrutinised, and how conclusions will drawn based on the findings of the collected data. For example, if a researcher wanted to investigate and understand trend that was occurring in a society the researcher may apply the qualitative approach. However, if another researcher was desirous of conducting a correlation study on students performance, they may apply the quantitative approach Quantitative Comparative Approach When the qualitative approach is applied generally, Bryman (2004) defined it as an investigative approach that typically stressed on words as opposed to the computations involved the gathering and interpretation of information. He further stated that this approach has three major features. The first feature is that it involves a deductive methodology towards the interaction connecting assumptions and investigation, in which the emphasis is situated on the examination of these assumptions. The second feature is that it integrates the systems and standards of positivism and of the natural empirical model. And thirdly it exemplifies an analysis of societal veracity as a peripheral authentic purpose Bryman (2004). The application of the qualitative approach in the social sciences is generally advantageous for four major reasons. Bryman (2004) stated that these reasons are measurement, causality, generalization and replication. Measurement is essential because it allows the researcher to define fine disparities between the cases, it is a reliable mechanism for shaping dissimilarities and it provides the foundation for further accurate educated conjectures of the level of association between notions. When the quantitative researcher is investigating a trend he or she is not interested in explaining the trend but rather in determining why the trend is occurring. When the researcher has made their final findings and conclusions there results may be able to be generalised to the whole population being researched. And finally, because of generally steps that are followed, and this method of research is void of personal biases it is objective, therefore if the researcher or any other researcher cond ucted the same research following the same steps the results yielded should be similar. Therefore this would give an indication that this approach to the social science is reliable and valid (Bryman 2004). However, they are also some disadvantageous which occur from applying the quantitative approach. Bryman (2004) has identified four major disadvantages that are generally associated with the application of this approach. Firstly he stated that researches of this approach are unsuccessful in discriminating individuals and societal organisation from the way by which people construe the world. Secondly, some individuals are of the opinion that the means by which the data is measured false belief that it is exactitude. For example, if a researcher distributed questionnaires, it is likely that some individuals may misinterpret the questions, and the answers may not be accurate. Thirdly, sometimes, the respondents may not have enough knowledge to answer the questionnaire adequately, which will result in the data not reflecting the current trend. And finally the investigation of interaction among variables produces an inert perspective of societal that is mutually dependent of individuals l ives (Bryman 2004). An example of how the quantitative approach was applied in mainstream social science was the study conducted by Chin, Fisak and Sims (2002). This study was termed Developing a Likert Scale: the case of attitudes to vegetarians. This study was used to investigate the behaviours of vegetarians who were said to be abnormal and as a consequence were considered with scepticism and resentment. As a result, the study conducted on a sample of undergraduate students of a university from the United States. There scale sought to answer four major questions. These questions were based on the type (s) of behaviours that vegetarians exhibited that was seen as offensive, discrepancy with their vegetarians ideologies, health concerns of vegetarians and how to treat them aptly. The researchers of the comparative quantitative approach also refer to this approach as the variable approach. Ragain (1989) defined this approach as being established on theory. Furthermore he opined that the qualitative comparative approach seeks to determine and analyse the association among perceptible interactions throughout various nations, and extensive hypothetically established descriptions of worldwide societal trends, as opposed to trying to comprehend explicit results. However, it must be noted that the main purpose of the quantitative comparative approach is based on establishing theories which are formulated from common assumptions as opposed to analysing historical conditions, in an attempt to create various historically results. This approach, the quantitative comparative approach has been famous for more than 25 years and its fame because there was a revamping in the concern of researching global societal phenomenon. This revamping of the field prompted researchers to inculcate the quantitative procedures from the conventional social sciences, which led to the application of the social science procedures to analyse hypotheses. The application of the quantitative approach in comparative social science has been beneficial because compartivists now have and increased authenticity and a renewed association with conventional social science (Ragin 1989). The use of the quantitative comparative approach is advantageous obviously for the same reasons mentioned for the use of the quantitative approach in mainstream social science, however Ragin (1989) has presented seven advantages that compartivists derive when they apply the quantitative comparative approach. Firstly, comparitivts are now equipped with an approach that allows them to study a large number of cases at an instant. Furthermore, it allows these researchers to increase the quantity the amount of scrutiny which does not require a great amount of knowledge of the field; despite having knowledge of the field would improve the quality of this approach. Secondly, it has stimulated a novel awareness in consistent quantitative cross-national data. This awareness is valuable because measuring permits more precise examination of the hypothesis to be achieved. Quantification of description of societal composition presents a foundation for analysing a wide range of conjectures concern ing the interaction among cases. Thirdly, it allows investigators to consider alternative explanations more carefully when testing a theory. Fourthly, comparativists now have access to information from various a large cross sections of countries data bases. Fifthly, through the application of the quantitative comparative approach, researchers have now when creating scientific generalisations; since the quantitative procedures that have been introduced are conventional like the traditional design in mainstream social science. Sixthly, it has reduced the inclination between some comparativits to appreciate specific elucidations when confronted with several contradictory situations. And finally it has given researches the opportunity to use procedures of statistical control (Ragin 1989). An example of a quantitative comparative study would be Bronschier and others (1978) study of developed countries that had an advanced level of local investment economies grew quicker. However, some individuals have criticised the quantitative comparative approach of these comparativists. Picciano (2004) has identified some major criticisms. Firstly, individuals have stated that comparativits who apply this approach has not given their subjects the opportunity to express their genuine perceptions, unlike the researchers who use the qualitative comparative approach. The quantitative comparative approach is also said to be criticised because findings from this approach tend to be void of significance. Researchers of the qualitative comparative approach also are condemned because they tend to be concerned with hypothesises which are unrelated to cases being examined, therefore this results in findings which are not truly linked to the instigative enquiries. As such, statistics are produced which is fictitious and inappropriate to distinct situations (Picciano 2004). According to Bryman (1988) and Smith (1983) as noted in Bray et al (2007) the use of quantitative comparative education in education is purposeful for the formation of principles which provide some form of clarification and forecasting of educational trends Principles of relationship maintain a practical reliance among objects, while principles that seek to determine reasons (qualitative comparative approach) entail an unchanging series of procedures. Observing this approach to the nomothetic form of analysis entails that investigators contemplate such principles to be worldwide, despite of dissimilarities that exist. Principles increases potentiality to explicate and forecast interactions among trends across circumstances. The quantitative approach is also imperative in education. These comparative educational investigators are interested in analysing in a fashion that their results would be generalised and pertinent to all the trends regardless of the nation our culture. Concurrently, there are feasible assumptions, systems, and strategies across the globe, and an aspiration to get worldwide explanations to worldwide phenomena. Major records from worldwide researches of educational accomplishment, and educational statistics collected by global organisation, can be appealing to knowledgeable and apprentice investigators similarly as a result of its accessibility. Ultimately, if the government indicates that they require the educational system a worldwide group to carry out an investigation they may require that researchers apply a more quantitative comparative approach (Bray et al 2007). Qualitative Comparative Approach When the qualitative approach is defined in mainstream social science Creswell (1998) stated that it is an investigative procedure of comprehending rooted on clear customs of inquisition that investigates a societal or human dilemma. The investigator creates a multifaceted, whole depiction, evaluates words, reports comprehensive ideologies of subjects, and performs the research in a real situation. However, he maintained that researchers who use this approach ought to conduct a quantitative research preceding it. Lincoln (1995) stated that this approach is procedure has a large concern of integrating and deducing the real subject with an effort to explain and understand trends of people. Furthermore this type of investigations uses diverse types experimental resources e.g. interview, case study, etc. When researches use the qualitative approach to conduct their investigations they are six steps that they must follow. Bryman (2001) has identified these six steps. The first step involves formulating broad investigative enquiries. The next step involves the choosing of the pertinent cases to be investigated. Thirdly, these researchers should seek to gather their pertinent information that will answer their research questions. Fourthly, the researcher has to construe the gathered information and afterwards they should seek to do some theorising. At this point the researcher has to redefine the research question, gather more information and re-interrupt the gathered information. Finally, the research can then construct their findings and conclusions. An example of the application of the qualitative approach to investigation is Taylors (1993:8) study cited in Byman (2004). This research involved the investigation of female drug users who used needles. In her study she showed that thes e women were rational active individuals who were capable of making choices rooted on the eventualities of both their drug abuse and the roles they play in society collectively. The qualitative approach in mainstream social science is advantageous. Burns (2000) has identified some advantageous of applying this approach when conducting research. Firstly, because the basis of research in this approach is not established on testing a hypothesis the investigator is provided with the opportunity to have a more intimate relationship with the subjects, and therefore a better understanding of the phenomenon being investigated. Researchers of this approach can also have a better opportunity in developing causations as it relates to trends that are occurring. Ultimately, when the findings are prepared they are not represented with numerical summaries; therefore the average person can understand the results presented (Burns 2000). However, they are four major disadvantages which can be associated with the application of the qualitative approach in mainstream social science. Firstly, the approach is too subjective, as such the results are too reliant on the investigators disorganised perceptions about what they view consequential. This approach to investigation is impossible to reproduce because it does not have any formal structure. Another criticism of this approach it that the results yielded cannot be generalised and can only be applicable to the small number of cases that were researched. Finally the whole procedure that is carried out in this approach does not clearly depict what the investigator procedures and how they made their deductions (Bryman 2001). The qualitative comparative approach is defined as an approach that compartavists use to create chronological clarification of detailed past results or previously distinct grouping of observed trends. This approach is also referred to as the case-orientated comparative method. The objective of this methodology is equally past construe and fundamental rational. Therefore, comparativits who use this method attempts to comprehend or infer explicit cases based on their inherent values. Thus the general aim is to create restricted generalisations regarding the subjects of tentatively distinct groups of experiential trends universal to a small group (Ragin 1987). They are some advantageous which can be derived from utilising the qualitative comparative approach. Ragin (1989) identified some of these advantages. Firstly, it is feasible to focus on fundamental difficulty involved in studying the cases based on attributes that create the significant societal transformation and trends that concern social scientists. Also this methodology necessitates that the researcher defers suppositions concerning the similarity of subjects and situations. This accommodation enhances the interactions between ideologies and findings. The research sample is manageable since the cases are few. Therefore these compartivists will be able to contrast the differences, and have a personal understanding of pertinent subjects (Ragin 1987). A good example of a qualitative comparative study is Marvin Harris (1978) study of sociocultural puzzles This study entailed him to studying the various views people had regarding meat from various parts of the world. He was able to explain these different ideologies of meat eating for the various regions based on cultural elucidations. They are also some disadvantages in applying the qualitative comparative approach. Picciano (2004) identified four disadvantages. Firstly, the analysis of the information is too dependent on the researcher. Furthermore, when the researcher has completed their investigation the study cannot be reproduced nor can the results be generalised for any other cases. And ultimately, since the results are not presented statistically some researchers will view the results as insufficient to provide valuable proof and furthermore being an assault to the truth. Since the qualitative approach to social to comparative method involves determining causation compartivists tend to apply comparative historical research when investigating. Mahooney and Ruechemeyer (2003) noted that this approach is a primary type of investigation that is applied in the social science. The comparative historical researchers primary interest is in enquiries which are precise to specific chronological cases. As a result of the desire to explicate these cases, frequently may result in additional research which extends beyond the initial subjects. Comparative historical analysis also involves explicating and recognising of fundamental configurations that create significant outcomes Furthermore investigators clearly examine past trends and obtains the changes over a time frame. And ultimately because comparative historical researchers typically are acquainted with all cases, they are able to they can assess variables based on theoretical analysis and legitimacy is achiev able when a reasonable number of cases are chosen (Mahooney and Ruechemeyer 2003). An example of a comparative historical study in the field of education would be Green and Wiborg (2004) study on Comprehensive Schooling and Educational Inequality: An International Perspective. Skopol and Somers (1980) have identified three approaches that can be used in comparative historical analysis. The first one is called Parallel Demonstration of Theory. The chief principle of this approach was for contrasting situations/countries past to convince the reader that a specified and described assumption can frequently reveal its effectiveness. An example of this approach is Jeffery M. Paiges study on the Agrarian Revolution. The second approach is contrasting on contexts by putting cases beside each other and more or less has a differing purpose than parallel comparative history. An example of this approach is Reinhard Bendix investigation of nation building and citizenship. Generally comparison is done between separate subjects. Typically contrasts are advanced by of the direction of assumptions. The third approach is the Macro-social Analysis. These investigators employ this style chiefly to determine causation about macro-level methods and systems. An example of this approach is Barrington Moores research on Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy (Skopol and Somers 1980). Mahooney (2000) also identified another approach that may be used in comparative historical analysis as path dependency. Through this approach researchers indistinctively conceptualise the past that is significant and the impacts it will have on the future. This form of investigation essentially analyses the association between sequential variables are considered, however it does not essentially scrutinise path-dependent progression of transform. However, it proposes an account for specific results of occurrences of exceptions. An example of the path-dependency approach to comparative historical analysis is Jack Goldstones Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World (Mahooney 2000). However within comparative education they are some researchers who prefer to adopt the qualitative comparative approach, and therefore insist that this method is applied. They prefer this method because they opine that it will eliminate the inadequacies that are associated with the quantitative approach to comparative education. Qualitative investigators within the field of comparative education also view that there is a sound conviction in the significance of traditional, political and societal framework and the opinion that education cannot be unrelated from its indigenous customs. Qualitative investigation is also supported through a great quantity of worldwide numerical statistics, frequently insignificantly engaged devoid of reflection of impending preconceptions. And also by means of elements of investigation contrasted which not only include native circumstances and societal difference, with consideration to the enquiry of the objectivity or importance of the investigators un dertaking. The qualitative comparative investigators in education focus on the necessitatity to the immensely prospective for partiality and difficult conjectures when investigators act externally from their personal intellectual circumstances. They opine that effort ought to be present in order to become cognisant of such partialities and furthermore to enquiry individual postulations although attempting to comprehend the postulations fundamental to the nations and traditions which are aims of investigations. An example of the use of the qualitative comparative approach in education is Margaret Archers (1979) as noted in Green (1990) study on The Social Origins of Education Systems. Her study was conducted in Russia, England, France and Denmark. This research was also the basis for Green (1990) study on Education and State Formation. Another example is Ramierz and Boli (1987) study on The political Construction of Mass Schooling: European Origins and Worldwide Institutionalization Mixed Methods Combing the qualitative and quantitative approaches to the comparative approach is beneficial when considering the many advantages and disadvantages t

The Growth Of Islamic Fundamentalism In Afghanistan Politics Essay

The Growth Of Islamic Fundamentalism In Afghanistan Politics Essay If there has been an overriding feature of their history [the Afghans], it is that it has been a history of conflictof invasions, battles and sieges, of vendettas, assassinations and massacres, of tribal feuding, dynastic strife and civil war. (2001, 12) Martin Ewan, Afghanistan, A Short History of Its People and Politics Since the end of the Cold War, the Afghanistan has witnessed a considerable rise in internal violence. During the 1960s a struggle had developed between Communists and Islamists in Afghanistan.  [1]  After the withdrawal of Soviet troops and subsequent takeover by the Taliban, Afghanistan has been constantly turning into a radically Islamist nation. FOUNDATION OF ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM IN THE AFGHANISTAN The USSRs attempts to consolidate a Communist regime in Afghanistan, first through aid and indirect involvement and later through direct military involvement, were major components in the development of the civil war in Afghanistan which eventually led to the victory of the Mujahidin and the rise of the fundamentalist Islamic regime.  [2]   In 1979, after the invasion had jolted the Muslim world. They realized that they were in no position to conduct a conventional campaign against Soviet Union. Thus a number of Muslim volunteers commenced moving to Pakistan to assist in the jihad. One of the first volunteers to move in to Pakistan was Osama Bin Laden. He said, One day in Afghanistan is like thousand days in a mosque. At first he personally covered the cost of travel of all volunteers to Afghanistan. In early 1980, he set up Masadat Al Ansar, then the main base for Arab mujahedeen in Afghanistan  [3]  . This was the first time a formalized training camp was set up in this country. During this period Sheikh Abd Allah Yussuf Azza, who was the key in establishing the International Legion of Islam- hard core of international terrorism, came in contact with Bin Laden. Together they established the Bait ul Ansar, which received and trained the first Islamist volunteers for Afghanistan. The Afghan Mujahidin waged their struggle against the USSR not only as a national liberation war but as a jihad in which radical Islamic elements from throughout the Muslim world took part and which had the blessing of most Arab and Muslim states  [4]  . However, most of the Mujahidin movements centred around traditional religious leadership based on ethnic and regional considerations, although some of the movements were heterogeneous and included supporters and included supporters and activities from various ethnic groups. The protest movement formed around local political and religious leaders and gradually developed into two main factions.  [5]   The first faction wanted to transform Afghanistan into an Islamic state in the spirit of Islamic law (Shariah). They adopted principals from the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood and advocated jihad against the Communist regime. This stream became known as the fundamentalist stream.  [6]   The second faction wanted to found a regime in the unique tribal tradition of Afghanistan. They also advocated struggle against the Communist regime. A considerable portion of the leaders of this faction came from the ranks of the supporters of King Zahir and inspired to reinstate the monarchy. This stream, which became known as the traditional or moderate stream, felt that the life of the individual should be guided by Islam but community and state problems should be solved in the tribal Afghan way.  [7]   All the major mujahidin parties advocate an Islamic republic as an end goal and are essentially religious. Islam has been the primary ideology and unifying factor among all these parties in the course of the struggle against the Soviet occupation; secular parties have attracted no significant following, especially the left, which was discredited by the communist takeover. Within the spectrum of Islam, however, these parties differ significantly in their makeup and approach. Traditional analysis has divided the seven Sunni parties into four Islamist and three traditional parties  [8]  . (a) Islamist. (i) Hizb- e -Islami (the Islamic Party), led by Gulbuddin Hikmetyar, primarily Pashtun in membership and radical in character. An Islamic fundamentalist-oriented movement advocating the foundation of a central Islamic republic. The organization is a variance and in conflict with the majority of the other Islamic movement. (ii) Hizb- e -Islami (the Islamic Party), led by Younis Khalis, primarily Pashtun in membership (on a tribal basis) and kept the original name even splitting from Gulbuddin Hikmetyars party. A fundamentalist-oriented movement that advocates the foundation of a theocratic republic. (iii) Ittihad-e- Islami (the Islamic Alliance of Afghan Mujahidin), led by Abdul Rasul Sayyaf, mainly Pashtun and radical in character as well as Saudi-oriented. An organization with a conservative ideology that advocates the establishment of an Islamic republic. The organization developed into a body that attempted to unify various Afghan elements located in Pakistan. (iv) Jamaat-e-Islami (the Islamic Movement of Afghanisdtan), led by Burhanuddin Rabbani, with membership mainly drawn from northern Afghanistan (Tajiki extraction) and more moderate in character. An Islamic fundamentalist-oriented movement advocating the foundation of a theocratic republic. (b) Traditionalist. (i) Harakat-e-Inquila Islami (The Islamic Revolutionary Movement), led by Mohammad Nabi Muhammadi, primarily Pashtun in membership and drawing more on traditional clergy. A conservative organization that aligns itself with returning to the prerevolutionary establishment (a relatively moderate organization). (ii) Jabha-ye-Nejat-e-Milli (The National Liberation Front), led by Sibghatullah Mujaddedi, mainly Pashtun in membership and Sufi oriented. A monarchist organization that supports reestablishment of the Pashtun establishment in the pre-revolutionary format. This is a relatively small organization among the Pashtun population. (iii) Mahaz-e-Islami (the Islamic National Front of Afghanistan), led by Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani, mainly Pashtun and Sufi oriented as well as pro-royalist. A monarchist organization that aligns itself with reinstatement of the monarchy (in the pre-revolutionary format) In addition, there are a variety of Shiite parties as many as ten at present, but with only a few having substantial political clout. Eight of these Shiite parties are religious and oriented toward Iran but are not necessarily firm in their support of the political line of the Ayatollah Khomeini. Two Shiite parties are not affiliated with Iran. Main Shiite organizations are  [9]  :- (a) Shura, led by Sayed Ali Beheshti. The organization advocates establishment of a Hazara autonomy. IT reached its height of power in 1979-1980 but later lost Iranian support to more radical Shiite organizations. (b) Nasser (Victory), led by Mir Hussein Tsadiki. An organization that advocates Hazara separatism. The organization was supported in the early 1980s by the Iranians as a counterbalance to the Shura but gradually became overly independent and lost Irans support. (c) Harkat-e-Islami (Movement of Islami Revolution), led by Mohammed Alsayyaf Muhseini. The organization advocates establishment of an Islamic state. It was supported by Hazara population and the Dari-speaking Shiite populations. (d) The Revolutionary Guards, led by Muhsein Razzai. A Khomeini-Hazara organization that advocates unification with Iran. Since 1984 the organization has massive Iranian support. (e) Hizbullah is a Hazara organization with a Khomeini orientation that advocates unification with Iran. The organization receives substantial support from Iran and maintains cooperative ties with Hizbullah in other countries. AFGHAN FUNDAMENTALISM : ITS ROOT OF LEGITIMACY The Afghan fundamentalist, or Islamist, movement enjoys a powerful base of legitimacy in Afghan politics owing to three key factors as under :- (a) The historic role of Afghanistan as defender of the faith in the Indian subcontinent. (b) The Islamists opposition to communism in Afghanistan in the early 1970s which forced many Afghan leaders to work from Pakistan against communist influence (the 1978 communist coup in Afghanistan overwhelmingly vindicated the Islamists initial fear of communist influence and intentions). (c) The paramount role of Islamist and religious parties in the struggle against Soviet occupation. AFGHANISTAN ROLE OF DEFENDER OF THE FAITH Afghanistan has had a unique and long-established tradition as defender of Islam in the subcontinent  [10]  . In the 19th century, for example, India (including present-day Pakistan and Bangladesh) was under the rule of the British Raj, the Turkish Ottoman Empire controlled vast portion of the Arab world, and Iran was helpless in the face of Russian and British domination but Afghanistan was one of a handful of truly independent Muslim countries in the world. Afghanistan alone had maintained its own independence from foreign control since 1747, and it thus enjoyed respect and recognition throughout the Muslim world. Afghanistans Durrani Empire in the 19th century was actually the second largest Muslim empire in the world at that time, ceding first place only to the Ottomans  [11]  . In the 19th century, Kabul helped foment Islamic political uprisings in India and was itself seen as one of the few places of refuge for those Muslims in British India who felt it was religiously untenable to live in a godless(British-run) state. Kabul also struck several severe blows against British power in the region, most notably by repelling what turned out to be a disastrous invasion of Afghanistan by the British army in 1842.  [12]   THE FOUNDATIONS OF ISLAMIST STRENGTH The strength of the Islamist movement in Afghanistan today rests largely on its military capabilities and on the strength of its political organization. The movement is not, in other words, a popular one, although it does command widespread respect for its role in the liberation of the country from Soviet occupation. It derives particular legitimacy from having provided the ideological spearhead for that struggle, radical Islam, which transcends mere nationalism. The Islamists movement, however, had actively opposed communist coup and takeover began. The movement thus occupies a central place in Afghan politics today. That all Afghan mujahidin parties today have a religious basis was underscored during the anti-Soviet jihad, or holy war a conflict that helped define the Islamic orientation of contemporary Afghan politics. Hence, there is a strong likelihood that the political, removal or fall of Najibullahs Peoples Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) will be followed by the establishment of some type of Islamic republic -one that is committed in some measure to the implementation of Islamic law (the Shari a). Possible Islamic models from which Afghanistan might draw include the Islamic governments of Iran, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia. The actual character of the new Afghan government, however, could vary considerably, depending in who dominates it and on the nature of specific policies and methods of implementation. Of the seven Sunni mujahidin parties in Afghanistan today, four are fundamentalist-ideological-Islamist in character, and two of these four are radical in their beliefs and operating style. Together, these four parties have the more integral role in the Soviet conflict than have the more traditional parties. Indeed, a key contributor to the Islamists strength has been the large measure of support that the radical Islamist parties have derived from Pakistan by virtue of their military performance and zeal. Such support was bolstered by former Pakistans President Mohammed Zia-ul-Haqq, who found the politics of the Afghan Islamist parties in consonance with his own Islamisation campaign in Pakistan. The Afghan Islamists, for their part, enjoyed the backing of Pakistani religious parties, who in turn were strong pillars of support for Zia. Zia also understood that the ideological orientation of the Islamist parties would largely inhibit them from encouraging Pashtun ethnic separatism in Pakistan an Afghan policy of nearly 30 years standing that had engendered considerable tension between the two countries. Islamists disapprove of narrow ethnic orientation as a basis for the state and instead support broader political groupings based on a common Islamic outlook. The close cooperation between Pakistan and the Afghan mujahidin against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan had one important and immediate consequence: the long standing hostility between Pakistan and Afghanistan has abated considerably. Benazir Bhuttos brief term as Prime Minister following Zias death, despite her more secular policies, did not significantly weaken Pakistans ties with the Afghan mujahidin. Fundamentalist parties in Pakistan will continue to support Afghan fundamentalist groups, regardless of the policies of Islamabad in the future. WILL THE FUNDAMENTALISTS COME TO POWER? Ironically, the removal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan has weakened one of the principal sources of Islamist strength in Afghanistan- for while all mujahidin parties may agree on the desirability of an Islamic government, consensus on power sharing is an entirely different matter. There are in fact deep rifts among the parties, mot only between traditionalists and Islamists but also among Islamists themselves. These divisions, which reflect ideological, regional, and ethnic differences as well as conflicts between personalities, are not likely to be readily resolved in the wake of the Soviet withdrawal. The strength of the Islamist parties rests on other factors as well like as under:- (a) Pakistan and Saudi preferences with respect to the distribution of aid among the mujahidin have served to strengthen the Islamists by providing them with greater opportunity to distribute their financial and military largess and hence to attract a broader following including support among the military commanders. (b) The mujahidins use of Pakistan as a political base of operations a factor that has skewed the true there -way power relationships inside Afghanistan among the parties, their local mujahidin commanders, and the populace at large has worked to the Islamists advantage. WEAKNESSES OF THE ISLAMIST PARTIES While the Islamists are still the single strongest element in Afghanistans political equation today, some of their strength derives from the location of their political base in the Pakistani border city of Peshawar, where Pakistans own political influence over the mujahidin can be maximized. As the struggle moves out of the anti Soviet, anticommunist phase and into a phase of civil war, the influence of the special political climate of Peshawar will diminish, and with it, the influence of Pakistan itself over the struggle. Other factors that may contribute to the possible weakening of Islamist influence are as follows :- (a) The Islamists lack a charismatic national figure like, for example, Irans Ayatollah Khomeini who will serve as a natural leader. (b) If financial support to specific mujahidin parties is severed in pursuit of a political solution in Kabul, it is unclear how much strength the Islamist parties would retain. While the Islamists ideological and organizational strengths remain significant in Peshawar, an internal power struggle inside Afghanistan would present a new set of variables that would affect the ultimate success of one party over another. (c) The Islamist parties are by no means united within themselves. (d) Because tribalism and regional loyalties in Afghanistan were largely subordinated in the decade long effort of all national elements to expel the Soviet Union, a permanently enhanced sense of national unity may now exist. On the other hand, the expulsion of the Soviet enemy may refocus Afghan politics on older and more parochial issues. Tribalism and regionalism are already reasserting themselves, essentially working against the radical Islamist parties. (e) Mujahidin commanders inside the country maintain only tenuous ties with the Peshawar parties. Hence they may not fully share the political views of these parties and may be increasingly inclined to act independently or to pursue their own agendas if alternative sources of aid weaken the party hold. (f) The highly disproportionate representation of ethnic Pashtuns among the refugee population in Pakistan skews our understanding of the political preferences of the broader population as a whole inside Afghanistan especially when Pakistan refugee camps are used as a basis for public opinion findings, press coverage, straw polls, and identification of political attitudes. Current Islamist strength in the Peshawar environment might well weaken once politics shift inside the country. The Islamists are therefore likely to come to power only by military means. The moderate parties in particular are concerned that the most radical Islamist faction, Hizb-e-Islami (the Islamic Party ), led by Gulbuddin Hikmetyar, may attempt to use Leninist tactics to eliminate other mujahidin leaders by assassination in order to secure power a fear that is based more on the personality of Gulbuddin than on the character of his Islamic ideology per se. While such an attempt cannot be ruled out, it is highly unlikely that a minority radical Islamist party attempting to do just that. Any radical Islamic leadership that sought to rule successfully would have to come to terms with the other political and ideological elements within the country. WHAT WOULD A RADICAL ISLAMIST LEADERSHIP MEANS? Any Islamist regime in Afghanistan, were it to come to power, would differ sharply from Irans Islamist regime in many important respects. First, such a regime would be firmly Sunni rather than Shiite in character, suggesting a greater ability to work with elements of secular state power as well as a less apocalyptic, oppression and martyr- oriented outlook. Afghan Islamists, furthermore, lack the depth of hostility toward the United States that has characterized Iranian politics. The Afghan Islamists in fact have almost no formal grievances against any past US role in Afghanistan; to the contrary, however much they may dislike US culture, the Islamists are well aware that the United States played a pivotal role in the anti- Soviet struggle. Afghan political culture as a whole also tends to be far less xenophobic than that of Iran- simply because Afghanistan has never been dominated and manipulated by foreign powers as consistently as was Iran throughout the 19th and early 20th centur ies. Nonetheless, Afghan Islamists share with other Islamist world movements the same concerns over the threat to the Islamic way of life posed by Western and especially American culture. Essentially , the Islamists perceive the United States as representing secularism, permissiveness, hedonism, individualism- all of which they see as deeply corrosive to the establishment of the virtuous Islamic society. Any Islamic Afghan regime will thus oppose such influences inside Afghanistan and will limit Afghan contact with American cultural influences. In addition, any Islamist regime in Kabul will gravitate strongly toward nonalignment and exclusion of Western as well as Soviet influence in the region. Such a regime would therefore oppose a US military presence in the Persian Gulf states, in Pakistan, or anywhere else in the Muslim world. Similarly, it would be likely to support the cause of Islamic minorities in regions such as India and the CAR. As an example, major ethnic elements in Afghanistan, such as Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Turkmen, are heavily represented in the CAR- a phenomenon that the Soviets have attempted to exploit in efforts to draw Afghanistan closer to the USSR. Yet such tactics have not assisted Soviet policy and in fact have likely backfired; ties between ethnic elements of both sides of the Soviet border are more likely to draw these populations closer together, resulting in an effort to diminish Moscows influence and to broaden the options of the Muslim populations of the CAR. Finally, an Islamist Afghan regime will be strongly conscious of Western imperialism and will be a strong advocate of the have-nots in North vs South issues. Despite these positions, however, an Islamist Afghanistan will have limited opportunity or reason to directly attack US interests, since such interests in Afghanistan will be highly limited in their scope. Afghan Islamists would unquestionably support the cause of fundamentalist parties in Pakistan, which could bring them into conflict with US policies there. Unlike pre- 1978 Afghan governments, however, Afghan Islamists are unlikely to support ethnic separatism in Pakistan. An Islamist Afghanistan will share some philosophical interests with Iran, but it would not be likely to cooperate closely with Iran on anything other than broad international Islamic issues. Sunni fundamentalists will in fact resent Irans support of the Afghan Shia, who will represents Irans chief instrument of influence in Afghanistan, and there is likely to be some degree of rivalry between a Sunni and a Shiite Islamic republic. Irans bid for influence in Afghanistan has nonetheless risen dramatically since the end of the Iran- Iraq War, and it perceives itself as a major player in future Afghan politics. Part of Irans goal here is to thwart Saudi interests. EMERGENCE OF TALIBAN Ever since the fall of Najibullah government and withdrawal of Soviet forces, the attempts by Pakistan to form a consensus regime in Kabul had failed. Pakistan also failed to install Hekmatayar govt and Rabbani had his own ambitions showing no inclination to accept Pakistani directions. By early 1994,the Inter Service Intelligence Agency (ISI) realised that the Rabbani regime was slowly consolidating itself in Kabul. This development was against Pakistans overall interests in Afghanistan and forced her to look for an alternative. Maj Gen (Retd) Naseerullah Babar, the Interior Minister in the second Benazir Bhutto Government conceived the idea of creating a students militia along with some veterans from the Afghan Mujahedeen who had fought the Soviet Army and who had taken shelter in Pakistan.  [13]   The infrastructure for launching Taliban was set up by May 1994.  [14]  The word Taliban literally means students of religious schools . The Taliban militia largely comprises students of religious schools (Madrassas) in Baluchistan and NWFP. Initially these Madrassas were set up by Jamait-i-Uiema-lslam (JUI) led by Maulana Fazlur Rehman for the Afghan refugees. Subsequently the Pak ISI took over these institutions and extended training, moral and material support to Taliban. The movement was very well planned to exploit religious sentiments of Islamic countries and Islamic organisations. This also paved way for easy recruitment and funds from international Islamic community. Taliban in Afghanistan is unique in the sense that it is not the product of a national movement like its predecessor, the Mujahidin, which waged a war against the Soviet Union and its Afghan puppets. The Taliban is a force created by the Pakistan with the twin purposes of containing Iran and diluting, and eventually weakening, Russian influence in its former Muslim-majority republic. The implicit aim is to preserve Pakistans influence over Afghanistan as the Taliban is dependent on Pakistan for logistics and military training and on the UAE for funds. Pakistan aimed following major advantages by Pakistan by supporting Taliban are:- (a) Militarily subdue and defeat the Tajik and Uzbek ethnic militias, bring Afghanistan under Taliban rule and thereby secure the Kabul-Salang-Kunduz highway, the major artery leading to Central Asian Republics. (b) Seek diplomatic international recognition for Taliban and orchestrate its future actions in consonance with her own interests. (c) Gain strategic depth vis-a-vis India. (d) Maintain Taliban as an anti India instrument for reigniting the Kashmir insurgency.  [15]